The Pacific Is Growing Faster
Than It Can Feed Itself

Population Outpacing the Food Supply

Land area across the Pacific island nations stays fixed, while their populations keep changing. This section compares the population index against the crop yield index and the livestock productivity index to see whether local food production is keeping pace with population growth.

Loading data summary...

Source: SPC Pacific Data Hub, DF_NMDI_POP (Population growth) & DF_CLIMATE_CHANGE (Crop Yield, Livestock Yield)

Temperatures Rising, Land Changing

Two indicators are used to track the climate pressure bearing down on agricultural land: surface temperature anomaly and the Climate Altering Land Cover Index (CALCI), an SPC index for monitoring the intensity of land-cover change that could itself influence the climate. The CALCI index is calculated relative to a reference year, so a rise or fall doesn't automatically mean better or worse without local context.

Source: SPC Pacific Data Hub, DF_CLIMATE_CHANGE (Surface Temperature Anomalies & CALCI)

A Changing Ocean: Sea Surface Temperature & Sea Level Rise

Pacific nations aren't only threatened by climate change on land; the ocean around them is changing too. Sea surface temperature anomaly shows how far the ocean has warmed from its historical baseline, while sea level rise in millimetres measures the direct threat to land and coastal infrastructure.

Source: SPC Pacific Data Hub, DF_CLIMATE_CHANGE (SST_ANOM, SEA_LVL)

Disaster Impact on Pacific Populations

SDG indicator 11.5.1 tracks the number of people directly affected by disasters each year. This data is episodic, meaning only years with a recorded disaster event have data, so the chart below only displays those years.

Tropical cyclones and flooding are the dominant causes behind spikes in people affected across this region. Direct economic loss data (SDG 11.5.2) is also available for some countries.

Source: SPC Pacific Data Hub, DF_SDG_11 (11.5.1 People affected & 11.5.2 Direct economic loss)

GHG Emissions Per Capita: Small but Not Zero

Pacific countries are tiny contributors to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but not zero ones. Per-capita GHG emissions data (tonnes of CO₂ equivalent) reflects a mix of local activity: diesel power generation, maritime transport, deforestation, and agriculture. New Caledonia, as a French territory with a large nickel industry, consistently records the highest per-capita emissions in the region.

Ironically, the Pacific countries most threatened by climate change contribute the least to causing it, a structural injustice that sits at the heart of debates in international climate forums like COP.

Source: SPC Pacific Data Hub, DF_CLIMATE_CHANGE (GHG_EMI_CAPITA)

Comparing 14 Pacific Countries

After tracing every layer of this crisis, from the food deficit, to the creeping rise in temperature, to the swelling ocean, to disasters that arrive uninvited, the question is no longer whether there's pressure, but where that pressure weighs heaviest. Six key indicators have been compiled and compared at once across all 14 Pacific countries and territories, forming a map of vulnerability that can't be read from a single angle alone.

New Caledonia, meanwhile, stands apart in one category: per-capita GHG emissions running three to six times the regional average, driven by the nickel industry that anchors its economy. This isn't a minor anomaly, it's a deeper structural imbalance. The countries emitting the least greenhouse gas are, time and again, the ones bearing the heaviest consequences. The cyan-coloured bar marks whichever country is currently selected from the navigation panel above.

Source: derived from the four SPC datasets above. Temperature change: the difference between the first 5-year average and the last 5-year average in the data.